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A GIS based operational system for wildland fire crisis management I. Mathematical modelling and simulation

机译:基于GIs的荒地火灾危机管理操作系统I.数学建模与仿真

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摘要

Operational crisis systems are widely known to aid management decisions by providing rational and quantitative information based on the site-specific circumstances and the possible consequences. Forest fire incidents are known to provoke irreparable damage to regions of utmost significance from the ecological point of view. The development of an operational system for managing such incidents is of great significance for the authorities and end-users. The most important component of such an operational system that efficiently manages wildland forest fires is a forest fire simulation tool. Such a simulation tool was developed to be based on two fold reasoning; a discrete contour propagation model for estimating fire consequences and a fuzzy/neural system for the estimation of fire spread as a function of influencing factors such as terrain characteristics, vegetation type and density and meteorological conditions. Modelling and simulation issues regarding the development of such a tool are discussed in detail. The tool was embedded to the operational system and estimations were derived for a typical Greek mountain forest in the region of Attica [Appl. Math. Modell. 28 (2004), this issue]. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译:众所周知,运营危机系统通过基于特定地点的情况和可能的后果提供合理和定量的信息来协助管理决策。从生态学角度来看,森林大火事件对最重要的地区造成了不可弥补的损害。开发用于管理此类事件的操作系统对于主管部门和最终用户具有重要意义。这种有效管理荒地森林火灾的操作系统的最重要组成部分是森林火灾模拟工具。开发这种仿真工具是基于双重推理。用于估计火灾后果的离散等高线传播模型和用于估计火灾蔓延的模糊/神经系统,它是影响因素(例如地形特征,植被类型和密度以及气象条件)的函数。详细讨论了有关此类工具开发的建模和仿真问题。该工具已嵌入到操作系统中,并对Attica地区的典型希腊山区森林进行了估算[Appl。数学。型号28(2004),此问题]。 (C)2003 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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